By the end of October 2025, the tourist flow of Russian tourists to the Chinese island of Hainan is approaching a historic maximum: in the ten months from January to October, 394,000 Russians visited the island, including 56,000 in October alone. According to the Federal Tourism Agency, this figure is 142.5% higher than the same period in 2024. An annual increase of 199.8% has already been recorded in 8 months, which makes 2025 an absolute record year in terms of the dynamics of the direction's recovery.

Forecasts: Will Hainan surpass the dockside level?

Analysts and representatives of the host country predict that by the end of 2025, about 500,000 Russian tourists will come to Hainan, which will significantly exceed the record of 330,000 people (2019). Thus, Hainan may become the largest Asian destination for Russians after Turkey and Thailand, ahead of the traditionally popular Egypt and the UAE in the category of "sunny" winter resorts.

Reasons for growth

Experts identify three key factors:

Visa waiver — starting in March 2025, visa-free entry was introduced for short-term trips of up to 15 days, which greatly simplified the planning of individual and corporate trips.

Expansion of flights — the number of direct scheduled and charter flights from Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and Kazan to Sanya and Haikou has more than doubled compared to 2024.

Investments in infrastructure — more than 20 new 4-5* hotels have been commissioned on the island, including those with Russian-language service and adapted gastronomie. Wellness and MICE destinations, as well as cultural and historical routes, are actively developing.

Expectations for the winter season

Given that November and February are traditionally the peak of demand for Hainan, the current rate (+56,000 in October) allows us to expect that the remaining two months will provide at least 106,000 arrivals, which will confirm the forecast of 500,000+ tourists per year. ATOR estimates that Hainan's share in the structure of Asian destinations may grow to 15-18% by the end of the 2025/26 winter season.